New Delhi l
India’s population is expected to reach 1.46 billion this year, keeping it the world’s most populous nation, according to the latest UNFPA report. However, behind this large number lies another significant shift: India’s fertility rate is now below the level required to maintain population growth.
The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled “The Real Fertility Crisis”, urges countries like India to stop panicking about falling birth rates and instead focus on helping people meet their reproductive goals, whether that means having children or not.
Key Findings
-
India’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1.
-
India’s current population is about 1.46 billion and is expected to peak at around 1.7 billion before starting to decline in about 40 years.
-
The report says the real issue is that millions of people still lack the freedom to make informed choices about childbearing, contraception, and reproductive health.
“This is the real crisis — not underpopulation or overpopulation, but unmet reproductive goals,” the report stresses.
A Changing Population
The report highlights several demographic trends:
-
Youth population remains strong — 24% are aged 0-14, 17% are 10-19, and 26% are 10-24.
-
68% of the population is of working age (15-64) — a potential demographic dividend if supported with jobs and good policies.
-
Elderly population (65+) is currently 7%, but this will grow as life expectancy improves.
- Life expectancy in 2025: 71 years for men, 74 years for women.
Progress and Gaps
India has come a long way since 1960, when the average Indian woman had nearly 6 children.
Back then, access to education and contraception was limited. Today, the average is about 2 children per woman, thanks to:
-
Better education
-
Improved reproductive healthcare
-
More women’s empowerment in family planning decisions
However, deep inequalities remain across different states, castes, and income groups.
“India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates — from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today,” said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.
“This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality. Yet, deep inequalities persist… The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices.”
Why This Matters
India is now part of a group of middle-income countries going through rapid demographic change. With the population doubling time now estimated at 79 years, India has a key opportunity:
- To support its working-age population.
- To prepare for an ageing population in the coming decades.
- To ensure reproductive rights and choices for all citizens.
