Washington
A massive “city-killer” asteroid, 2024 YR4, is now at the top of NASA’s risk list after new calculations increased its chances of colliding with Earth in 2032. Scientists are watching it closely, and while the risk is still low, this space rock has grabbed global attention like no other asteroid in recent history.
How Dangerous Is It?
- Size: Between 40 and 100 meters wide—big enough to cause serious damage if it enters Earth’s atmosphere.
- Current Distance: Right now, it’s twice as far as the Moon but heading in our direction.
- Chance of Impact: Originally 1.2% (1 in 83), but new data increased it to 2.3%.
- Possible Impact Date: December 22, 2032—just before Christmas!
This makes 2024 YR4 the most concerning asteroid NASA has tracked in decades.
NASA’s Eyes Are Locked In
NASA is constantly tracking this asteroid using some of the world’s most advanced telescopes, including the WISE Space Telescope. In January, Chile’s Very Large Telescope captured images that helped scientists understand its movement better.
NASA is also working on a new infrared space telescope that will improve asteroid detection and provide even more accurate predictions.
Why Is It So Hard to Track?
- Asteroids only reflect sunlight at certain angles, making them difficult to spot.
- Radar tracking works best when objects are close, but in 2028—when 2024 YR4 passes at 20 times the Moon’s distance—it may be out of range.
- Infrared data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will help scientists determine its exact size and path.
What Happens Next?
- The Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts is gathering data from observatories worldwide to refine predictions.
- NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission is working on new asteroid tracking technologies.
- The next major update comes in 2028, when 2024 YR4 makes a closer pass.
Scientists are also digging through old data to see if they can learn more about its past movements. For now, all eyes are on 2024 YR4, reminding us why planetary defense is more important than ever.
