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Trump’s “Predictable Unpredictability” Worries Asia; India Keeps Watch

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U.S. President Donald Trump has again shaken up America’s closest allies in Asia — Japan and South Korea. It’s done by threatening 25% tariffs on their goods if trade deals aren’t done by August 1. He also said levied as high as 40 percent on imports from 12 other countries, as the administration continues negotiating trade deals. This is part of his ongoing effort to secure better deals for the U.S.

While Trump’s actions often seem sudden, experts say this is part of his pattern. He is known for being unpredictable on purpose — something that has now become expected.

As South Korean expert Heo Yoon put it,

“Trump is quite predictable about his unpredictability.”

Japan and South Korea Upset, But Still Talking

Japan – 

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called,

” Trump’s move “deeply regrettable.”

  • Japanese leaders are angry that such a big decision was shared through a simple letter.

  • Japan’s upcoming July 20 election is also making it harder for the government to make quick trade deals.

South Korea – 

  • In South Korea, the newly elected government welcomed the extra time but is under pressure.

  • President Lee Jae Myung said,

” it would have been difficult to meet the earlier deadline.”

  • South Korean leaders are currently in high-level talks in Washington to address trade and security concerns.

Other Asian Countries Also Affected

Indonesia has offered to remove tariffs on American goods and buy $34 billion worth of U.S. products.

  • Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand are also negotiating. Cambodia could be hit hard. A 36% tariff would hurt its economy and the garment industry badly.

  • Despite all this, Asian stock markets stayed stable, with investors hoping deals would be made before the deadline.

What About India?

  • India is not part of the current tariff threats, but the situation could still impact it.

  • The U.S. sees India, Japan, and South Korea as key partners in countering China’s influence.

  • Any shake-up in trade or alliances in Asia may open up new opportunities or challenges for India.

It’s About Pressure, Not Trust

Some experts believe Trump is using Japan and South Korea to send a message to others — make a deal, or face tariffs.
But others are concerned that such pressure hurts trust between allies.

As one Japanese expert, Tokuko Shironitta asked:

“Is this how you treat your allies?”

Even though Trump said the August 1 deadline is “firm, but not 100% firm,” it’s clear that pressure is rising. As Marc Mealy of the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council said:

“This is not the end — just a point on the journey.”

( inputs – washington post ) 

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